【理財周刊796期封面故事】大咖來了!低價庫藏股大戶看了也心動

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2015/11/26  |  第578期  |  訂閱/退訂  |  看歷史報份
 

 封面故事 低價庫藏股 大戶看了也心動!
 特別企劃 生技兩大咖 潤泰尹衍樑PK晟德林榮錦
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低價庫藏股 大戶看了也心動!
文.李彥緯

證所稅廢除,被點名的海內外大戶及中實戶「鮭魚返鄉」,會買什麼股票?近四個月以來,已經確實買回庫藏股上市櫃公司,而市價仍低於庫藏買回均價的標的,不失為大戶絕佳的機會。

台股自民國五十一年開市以來,可以說是攸關個股股價與行情不可或缺的要角之一的「主力大戶」,近幾年隨著「復徵證所稅」政治因素干擾,使其曝露於可能遭到國家高頻率課稅、持續性查稅干擾的威脅,嚴重打擊他們繼續留在台股深耕的意願。 證所稅陰魂糾

纏三年半 台股每況愈下

想當然耳,在缺少了原本不時會於市場上「煽風點火」、「活絡交易」,且每季交易金額動輒達五億台幣以上,可以稱之為「行情造市者」的主力大戶們「共襄盛舉」後,台股的周轉率也在缺少大戶的「興風作浪」下,市場交易氛圍逐漸降溫,過去三年來均未達90%水準(今年更可能下探80%)。同時,隨著交易意願不斷降低,成交量能每況愈下,上一次見到台股成交日均量水位達一千億元以上,已是近五年之前。

雪上加霜的是,原本政府「復徵證所稅」的課稅規定,是賣出股票金額超越法定起徵門檻以上,如此一來,公司大股東自然會擔憂會被課徵先前並無需負擔的交易稅負,使得原本規劃要在台灣次級金融市場申請掛牌交易的公司,相繼打了退堂鼓,造成過去三年以來申請新掛牌企業家數出現大幅度持續縮減現象。

另一方面,自「復徵證所稅」施行以來,隨著一年不如一年的「日成交量」水準,與股市成交量能高度相關的「證券交易稅」金額,也因為稅源規模的大幅縮減,呈現一年不如一年的冷清情勢。最近這四年,年度證交稅金額均已難達九百億元以上。

立院決議廢除 「復徵證所稅」緊箍咒

在成交市況持續降溫,絕大多數股民嚐不到甜頭,更慘的還不幸蒙受投資損失。幸好,在多位重量級「正義之士」群起發聲下,加上根據券商公會統計資料指出,政府於2012年開始推動復徵證所稅以來,國庫總計已短收高達二五六一億元稅額,逐漸形成「停徵證所稅」的共識。

糾纏台股長達三年半之久的「復徵證所稅」風波,如今終於落幕,台股中一項影響重大的不確定因素正式解除,終於可以回歸正常市場機制。原本造成大戶綁手綁腳的「復徵證所稅」風波告一段落,也為大戶們開啟了重回台股的「返鄉之路」。

金管會為了在最短時間內,以最快速度為台股注入睽違已久的強心針動能,也開始進行「請大戶喝咖啡」聯誼活動;加上近期盤面交投氣氛似乎開始出現加溫跡象,一夕之間,好像所有的烏煙瘴氣以及「擋在前頭的最大塊石頭」等不利大戶入市的負面因素都瞬間消失,對大戶們而言,彷彿又是一次回防台股,再大賺一波的「天時、地利、人和」大好機會,現階段可說是入市誘因十足,理當好好把握!

股價受拖累 大股東、公司派藉庫藏股護盤

台股自五月初以來,直到九月初為止的四個多月期間,一度見到多達二八一一點、約二八%的大幅回檔修正波段跌勢。一開始主要是因為中國傳出今年GDP成長率恐無法順利「保七」,引發市場擔憂全球經濟將無法維持原有成長動能;一方面也因為台股大盤亦於四月二十八日盤中再度攻上距離前次市場盛況榮景長達十五年之久的萬點重要指標大關。

在指數波段漲勢漲幅已大,加上國際經濟前景展望因中國成長動能減緩而蒙上一層厚重烏雲下,造成台股最近一波有如大怒神一般,短期間大幅的急速下跌修正。

影響所及,個股股價跟著出現幅度不一的修正跌勢。更有些營運前景欠佳、後市展望透明度低、客戶訂單掌握度亦低的公司,在缺乏產業基本面的奧援下,籌碼面又相當凌亂,跌幅更是加大。此時,為了不讓股價表現太難看,大股東及公司派自然想要出手護盤,成為中止股價連續跌勢的一股重要力量。

精選標的 乘機搭上主力點火庫藏股列車

為了幫讀者篩選出,接下來最有可能成為大戶回流台股熱潮下「首波受惠族群股」,鎖定今年第二、三季期間曾經公告要實施庫藏股的上市櫃公司,相關實施狀況,如:宣布買回庫藏股期間、預定買回價位區間、預定買回張數、實際買回庫藏股期間、最後買回張數及比例,以及結算平均買入成本等資訊,分析歸納出現階段股價相對其庫藏股平均買回成本差距仍未達20%漲幅者。

甚至,如果目前股價仍低於其平均買回成本者,對未來要「錢」進台股的大戶們來說,尤其具備更致命的「潛在獲利」吸引力,因為如此一來,即形同「大戶買進持股成本,低於公司大股東」!更有機會成為將來大戶重返台股時,最佳的鎖定標的!

畢竟,沒有任何一個大戶會傻到用自己的錢,幫已經穩穩坐在轎子上、已獲得實現潛在價差獲利空間機會的大股東、公司派,用力抬轎,成為被倒貨的對象!因此,除非後市有漲升空間,不會在進場推升股價上漲過程中被公司派、大股東倒貨,而有獲利可能的標的,大戶才有可能介入「共襄盛舉」。如果可以買到這種「沉潛待變」,後市「鑲金鍍銀」機會大的個股,當然有很高機率可以輕鬆獲利落袋!

同時,如果就「執行庫藏股買回比例」來看,自今年五月初至九月初的四個多月期間,公開宣布要實施「買回庫藏股」、執行完畢達三百家的上市櫃公司,有些公司在結束後,不只真的按照其公告張數全數買齊,甚至還加碼多買了一、二次,也同樣執行完畢、全數買齊,可以說是「一言九鼎」的誠實企業。

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生技兩大咖 潤泰尹衍樑PK晟德林榮錦
文.李泰宏

台灣生技投資教父尹衍樑識人眼光精準,與其說他是投資生技產業,不如說他是投資「人」。而有台灣「製藥界艾科卡」之稱的林榮錦,擅長讓原本經營不善的公司起死回生。

文.李泰宏

生技產業投資報酬率高,一旦找對產品,報酬相當驚人,隨著潤泰集團總裁尹衍樑投資的中裕新藥(4147)掛牌上櫃,也讓外界開始關注國內生技產業布局。從台灣生技界兩位舉足輕重的大咖─潤泰集團尹衍樑及晟德集團林榮錦,可以一窺堂奧。

尹衍樑有台灣生技投資教父之稱,尹衍樑的厲害之處,就是他總能慧眼識英雄,同時以最低的投資價格進行投資,且投資的多是新藥開發公司,儘管新藥開發要耗費相當的資金及時間,不過尹衍樑卻依然堅持持續擴大其投資版圖。

中裕新藥執行長張念原表示,如果當初沒有尹衍樑的資金挹注,2008年政黨輪替後,中裕因為資金不足,可能就因此夭折了。由此可見,尹衍樑對於新藥開發,確實有著異於他人的眼光及堅持。

尹衍樑投資新藥開發公司快狠準

除了中裕新藥外,台灣生技股王浩鼎(4174),尹衍樑也是大股東,隨著浩鼎的乳癌新藥OBI-822第二、三期臨床試驗可望提前於明年二月底前解盲,一旦結果證明有其療效,即可為其投資收益再添一筆。

尹衍樑投資生技之所以如此成功,最大的關鍵不是熟悉生技產業,而是識人眼光精準。包括全球愛滋病研究權威,同時也是中裕新藥最高顧問何大一,以及台灣浩鼎生技創辦人張念慈、中研院院長翁啟惠、美商Watson創辦人趙宇天、美商OPKO Health公司創辦人許照惠、美商OrbiMed Advisors常務董事唐南珊等,尹衍樑的投資,與其說是投資生技產業,倒不如說是投資「人」。

而尹衍樑的生技投資布局,除了中裕新藥及浩鼎外,還有生物類似藥廠F-泰福(6451),疫苗研發製造、生物製劑研發製造廠基亞生技(6547),以及供應浩鼎乳癌新藥原料,並開發醣蛋白抗乳癌藥物製程的潤雅生技。儘管中裕已經順利掛牌上櫃,也讓尹衍樑對於生技產業持續看好,不過他也認為還沒到真正收割的階段,產業人士分析,一旦尹衍樑其他投資的生技公司也能像中裕新藥、浩鼎一般掛牌上市櫃,他的投資將可說是真正的大收割。

至於林榮錦則向有台灣「製藥界艾科卡」之稱,與尹衍樑不同,林榮錦擅長讓經營不善的公司起死回生,包括台灣東洋(4105)及晟德(4123)等,都是他的成功戰役。林榮錦的策略說來簡單,就是先穩定公司現金流,不用擔心資金問題,等到現金穩定了之後,就可以開發新的業務。

林榮錦先穩住公司營運再擴版圖

林榮錦認為,台灣只有三種藥廠能生存,一是專業生產學名藥,不過生產學名藥需要資本與經濟規模,競爭激烈;二是開發新藥,一旦研發成功,就能透過授權方式獲取利潤;三是特殊劑型的新藥開發,主要是將舊藥改良藥效,一方面具有智慧財的保護及藥品經濟學效益,卻無學名藥藥價殺戮的問題,最適合台灣中型藥商的發展戰略。這也是林榮錦在規劃旗下生技公司發展方向所依據的原則。

甫接任永昕(4726)董事長的陳德禮表示,林榮錦經營公司的原則,就是讓公司可以穩定營運,有了餘裕,不用擔心公司生存問題之後,再來挑戰高風險的領域。而永昕也是基於這樣的理念,在原本的CDMO(接受客戶委託開發與製造生物藥品)、自行開發生物相似藥業務穩定後,為擴展新的領域,決定增加新藥開發業務。

對於人才開發,也是林榮錦相當重視的領域,陳德禮就是林榮錦從陽明大學醫學系挖角過來。林榮錦認為,陳德禮具備專業知識,同時也具有商業經營能力,為了讓陳德禮願意棄學從商,林榮錦等了好幾年,也親自帶著陳德禮了解公司經營之道,最後才順利讓陳德禮加入陣營。

至於在今年十月陸續獲得美國FDA及台灣衛福部TFDA胰臟癌藥證的智擎(4162),也是林榮錦的成功力作。不過相較於尹衍樑的雄厚實力,林榮錦的生技布局並沒有那麼順遂,智擎總經理葉常菁透露,因為籌資問題,當初一度讓智擎有機會加速開發進度的併購計畫無法順利執行,所幸最後仍順利完成胰臟藥ONIVYDE(中文名安能得)的開發任務,並順利取得藥證,接下來智擎因為資金充裕了,也計畫開始併購。

【詳細內容請參閱最新一期《理財周刊》796期;另推出《行動版APP》即時掌握最新理財資訊。尊重智慧財產權,如需轉載請註明出處來源;訂閱理財周刊電子雜誌

 

Android獨享!下載理周APP免費看電影
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◎封面故事>大咖來了!低價庫藏股大戶看了也心動
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